User blog comment:JERealize/What lies beyond Panem?/@comment-24.212.245.253-20130416025926

Main Contention:

No entity more powerful than 'the Districts' lies beyond Panem.

Premise:

1. Groups of people are in violent conflict for resources (see JERealize's opinion)

2. The Capitol has substantial resources (see Capitol's excesses)

3. President Snow is shrewd.

4. President Snow uses violence to protect his state-of-affairs (see the Games themselves)

5. Generally, in conflict, more powerful groups prevail over less powerful groups (axiomatic)

Argument:

Points 1 and 2 are bases for believing that other entities have a measure of motivation to violently seize Panem's resources.

Points 3 and 4 are bases for believing that President Snow is aware of Points 1 and 2, and that he would use violence outside of Panem to protect his state-of-affairs.

Point 5, in concert with the two arguments above, is a basis for believing that President Snow would not be preoccupied with the Districts if there were a greater power than the Districts.

Conclusion:

The Capitol is more powerful than the Districts are: the Districts are more Powerful than any extra-Panemian entities are.

In paragraph form:

There are entities that would violently seize the Capitol's resources. If these entities were more powerful than the Capitol, then they would likely succeed. If they were less powerful, then they would likely fail. The President is shrewd, so he knows this. A shrewd man allocates his resources wisely. That the President spends some resources preventing the Districts from revolting and changing his state-of-affiars, but he spends no resources preventing extra-Panemian entities from violently seizing the Capitol's resources, thus changing his state-of-affairs. This indicates that the extra-Panemian threat is either, so great that there is no sense in working to counter it, or that it is substantially less severe than the threat posed by the Districts. The former seems unlikely.

That the Districts' revolt failed would indicate (on the basis of point 5) that they are most likely less powerful than the Capitol. However, because it is often, but not always, the case that more powerful entities defeat less powerful entities, there remains a chance that the Districts could change the President's state-of-affairs. Given that the President is shrewed, we must assume that this chance is large enough to warrant his investment in countering it.

So then, the President's investment in countering a revolt of the Districts and absence of his investment in countering an extra-Panemian threat, would indicate that the Districts are more powerful than any extra-Panemian entity.