User blog comment:JERealize/What lies beyond Panem?/@comment-180.200.175.170-20121228113040

I personally assume that the great cataclysm that engulfed the world was akin to global warming. The ice melting, raising the sea level by ~100m. Deserts encroached on the world's breadbackets (The medditerenean lies next to the Sahara, China's Northern Plain lies next to the Gobi Desert, the American Midwest lies close to the Sonoran Desert etc, causing huge famines and conflicts as starving people become more and more desperate. Some places were effected MUCH worse than others though.

AFRICA

Most of Africa is a high plateau, so sea level rises didn't effect it that much. But global warming did. Even consuming a conservative estimate (2 degrees) agriculture comes close to impossible as their main crops,such as cassava start producing cyanide when the temperature crosses a certain threshold. Add this to a population that doubles every twenty years with sky high fertility, youg ot yourself a time bomb. I expect five to fifty million people living in siubstinence conditions that makes ditrict 12 look like the capitol.

MIDDLE EAST

Hit even harder as most of it was just half a step away from uninhabitable desert in the first place. When the oil markets dried up as the global economy collapsed, they had no oil to trade for grain, so millions starved. Governments would not watch their people starve to death wihtout any action, and add the fact that they most of them have nucleur weapons... it ain't gonna be pretty. Expect a real District 13 here folks.

EUROPE

The Calamities of the Middle East has spilled into its southern member states, forcing the government to build an impenetrable fence which makes the fence in district 11 look like child's play to escape through. The flooding would effect Europe's main breadbaskets on the Northern European Plain, drastically reducing the population as the great sea wall gave way int the freak storm of 2077. It has fractured into the many small, bickering states Europe has been in the middle ages as countries who had enough to eat shut out their neighbours who had none, resulting in large amounts of conflict before it all died down and a European Federation was born out of the ashes. Approximately two hundred million people would have survived as luckily only Britain, France and Russia had nukes and due to their georgraphy actually benefited from climate change. But this new Europe after the nukes sent from the Middle East and steered by the three strongest remaining powers France, Germany and Russia, took a very protectionist and isolationist turn. Europe is a highly technocratic power and would probably develop a laser syste to take down incoming missiles. Probably has a population larger then Panem, ~100-300 million. Since Europe is constantly horrified about the horrors of the second world war and colonialisation, expect a liberal, socially democratic republic that doens't intervene in the outside world. At all.

ASIA

Japan, due to its rapidly declining problem from the lack of children, would not have any major die offs except during massive typhoons as overpopulation isn't an issue. China, South East Asia and India weren't so lucky. Their most productive areas either lie near the deserts or on the coastal plains, so adding global warming and sea level rises, one can estimate that crop production halved in a very short time period and would be nearly wiped after a freak cyclone/typhoon season. 100-300 million seems a reasonable estimate, as the snowcaps that fed the rivers that most asians depended on have dried up. Most of Asia would be divided into petty, squabbling city states that have lot of nukes. Half the remaining habitable areas would also be real district 13s.

AUSTRALIA

Hard hit by climate change, but since it produces twice the amount of food it needs, has abndant recourses, more so than any other country, the second largest grain exporter and also has abundant number of desalination plants. It would probably place a minefield to stop  refugees from coming. Even though it is a very wealthy country, it is largely ignored in international relations therefore no nukes. Since fertility is slighlty below replacement I would expect 10-20 million people living relatively prosperous lives. New Zealand is also doing very well, with 5 million citizens living in conditions that would make eveyrone but the Capitol jealous as it relatively elevated, would remain green under almost any climate change scenario, produces large amonts of hydro electricity and exports four times more food than in consumes.

LATIN AMERICA

Patagonia and Southern Brazil are the only regions that would remain inhabitable. Sadly, this region is not genetically diversed as the rest, since these regions are inhabited by Spanish settlers and have a distinct European, not latin american feel. Huge food exporting region, so just stopped exporting when crops were hit. But in the rest, society has collapsed completly, none was more spectacular than Mexico, right on Panem's doorstep. Probably has ~40 million at most, with 4 million outside of Patagonia ( From 600 million before). Lving standards are relatively high in the south, comprable to Australia' and New Zealand's as due to a low population and fertility, never had a large die off. Though a dictatorship arising to fend off Patagonia's starving neighbours. Expect a regime comprable to Panem's but less brutal due to it being a not so hated because it is so powerful country, which is something that America has.

PANEM (For comparison)

Districts 1-5, due to the nature of their industries live in first world conditions, 6 and 8 industrial conditions and 7, 9-12 live in abject poverty. The size of the capitol as described in mockingjay would mean that it would have 8-15 million inhabitants, with large amounts of the South, Most of the North East and all of the Coastal West. To support the capitol's consumption and fit the description of the districts that Katniss gives us, the districts population would probably be in 50-200 million as Katniss describes the technology which seems to regressed to early industrial levels, as warfare between the heavily effected south, east and west against the prosperous less effected North and Midwest. The Capitol is likely located in the Spokane Basin WA and actually benefited from Climate Change, helping it to atain a dominant position over the now climate battered districts. Plenty of water and hydroelectricity for its wasteful consumption of its inhabitants, fertile soil, surrounded by mountains all around  with very high ranges to the east with not many easy passes which can be easily be blocked means that it was very defendable during the wars that tore apart North America and with good military command, could emerge unscathed from the war, making it extremely welathy relative to the rest of Panem. Katniss mentions that they had to pass District 10 and 2 to get to the capitol, and Montana's ranches are prized for their cattle.