User blog comment:Cruiser One/My Hunger Games computer simulation/@comment-58.6.204.138-20130531063043/@comment-1852938-20130629221407

I notice the tributes from 5, 8, and 7 have somewhat higher betting odds in the movie, but that seems to just be due to the condition of those tributes that year, instead of something about their District. Foxface placed 4th, which is said to be "a very rare thing for District 5". Similarly, District 8 is described as all urban with no chance of getting familiar with outdoor settings as seen in the arenas, which may be why in the 74th and 75th HG both tributes from 8 died on the first day.

Careers and all tributes already consider health, wielded weapon, and how much they hate you (i.e. how much you've attacked them or one of their allies), when deciding who to target. Weaker and unarmed tributes get targeted first, since they can be eliminated at lower risk to yourself (and more kills means higher chance of sponsor gifts). Stronger tributes should be more likely to get alliance offers (like Thresh) or those who are "strong" in other ways (like D3 Boy), since they have something to offer or because fighting them right away is likely to be hazardous. (Certainly if someone turns down an alliance offer, then they're dangerous and should be targeted more, like the D8 Boy with high odds who died first.) Tributes don't consider number of kills, since only Gamemakers have that information (only who has died is displayed in the arena, as opposed to who killed them).